The one million level is rarely seen in SPX puts and generally indicates an extreme amount of hedging on the part of institutional investors, as well as increased speculative activity.

Looking at the chart below, which goes back two years, one can see that in those rare instances when put volume (vertical red bars on lower half of chart) reached one million, this typically coincided with a bottom in stocks.  [Edit:  today’s finally tally is 1.28 million SPX puts, the highest total since August 9, 2011]

In addition to puts in the SPX, I also closely follow the ISEE equities only call to put ratio. The indicator I have developed which is based on the ISEE is now showing is greatest contrarian bullish bias (due to a preponderance of put volume) since the end of June 2010, just two days before the SPX put in an key bottom at 1010.

Of course, history is not guaranteed to repeat itself or even rhyme in the face of the current worries about Greece and Spain, but the odds now favor stocks finding at least a short-term bottom very soon.

Related posts:

• New Single Day High in ISEE Equities Only Index on Monday
• Yesterday’s Unusually Low ISEE Equity Number
• Checking for Athiests
• Equity Put to Call Ratio Hits Ten Month Low
• Chart of the Week: Total Put to Call Ratio
• CBOE Equity Put to Call Ratio Poised to Print Warning
• A First Look at the ISEE

[source(s): LivevolPro.com]

Disclosure(s): Livevol is an advertiser on VIX and More

As Apple falls, institutions and analysts have asked me to tell them where the next bounce will occur. The chart below explains it beautifully. The level for an Apple bounce will be $520-$525. The stock will bounce 5% off of this level before resuming its downward track below $500.00.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks.com

]]> http://www.themarketfinancial.com/lock-and-load-apple-will-bounce-at-this-level/129263/feed 0 http://www.themarketfinancial.com/oil-services-cling-on-to-minor-gains/129260?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=oil-services-cling-on-to-minor-gains http://www.themarketfinancial.com/oil-services-cling-on-to-minor-gains/129260#comments Thu, 17 May 2012 15:19:30 +0000 Nicholas Santiago http://www.themarketfinancial.com/?p=129260 This morning, all of the leading oil service stocks are holding on to some minor gains. This sector along with most other energy markets has been very weak since March 2012. Today, the Market Vectors Oil Services ETF (NYSEARCA:OIH) is trading higher by 0.20 cents to $36.16 a share. Short term day traders should watch for intra-day resistance around the $36.70, and $37.40 levels. This sector could be poised for a bounce if the major stock indexes can rally as the OIH is showing intra-day relative strength.

Some of the leading oil service stocks that are trading in positive territory today include Baker Hughes Inc (NYSE:BHI), Transocean LTD (NYSE:RIG), Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc (NYSE:DO), and Halliburton Company (NYSE:HAL). These stocks should be followed closely today as possible runners if the major stock indexes can catch a bid higher. If the major market indexes decline lower then traders should not expect these stocks to move much higher.

Nicholas Santiago
InTheMoneyStocks.com

Some of the leading agricultural stocks that are trading lower today include Monsanto Co. (NYSE:MON), Potash Corp Sask Inc (NYSE:POT), and Agrium Inc (NYSE:AGU). All traders should note that these stocks are very oversold. Should the U.S. Dollar Index sell off or pullback these stocks could catch an intra-day bid off of the lows.

Nicholas Santiago
InTheMoneyStocks.com

Some other leading financial stocks that should also be followed closely include Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC), Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS), and Deutsche Bank AG (USA) (NYSE:DB). Generally, these stocks will trade in tandem with each other, however, from time to time they can trade independently. All traders should remember that JPM is still the most important stock in the financial sector. Until JPM stock can rally it would be prudent to expect the rest of the financial sector to be relatively weak in the near term.

Nicholas Santiago
InTheMoneyStocks.com

As scary as the charts look on the miners like Silver Wheaton and Goldcorp, a bounce is likely in this range. They are oversold and into major support.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks.com

Some of the leading transportation stocks that are trading higher include FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX), CSX Corporation (NYSE:CSX),Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), and Ryder System, Inc. (NYSE:R). Traders must now trade this sector one day at a time as it is likely to remain very volatile over the next few weeks.

Nicholas Santiago
InTheMoneyStocks.com

Some of the other leading base metal producers that are bouncing today include Southern Copper Corp (NYSE:SCCO), Cliffs Natural Resources Inc (NYSE:CLF), and Vale (ADR) (NYSE:VALE). Please note, all of these stocks will generally trade inverse to the U.S. Dollar, therefore, it is very important to follow the U.S. Dollar index very closely.

Nicholas Santiago
InTheMoneyStocks.com

After more than two years of a surging bull market that has seen the major stock market indices more than double, it is not surprising that many investors are becoming more concerned about protecting existing profits than finding ways to increase existing account balances.

As someone who makes a living trading options, you would think that finding a way to hedge my portfolio using options ought to be second nature by now. In fact, I have always placed more emphasis on offense than defense, not because I underestimate the importance of risk management, but because I generally find the opportunity cost of portfolio protection to be too high. I am sure this will sound like heresy to some, but the truth is that I never want to pay the full price for portfolio protection, so my efforts at hedging my portfolio have always emphasized finding the narrowest possible hedge for my needs and limiting the cost of that hedge as much as possible. In a nutshell, my approach is to try to figure out where the best place is to cut the corners and shave the odds, without significantly increasing my exposure. An academic may refer to this as creating a bespoke or customized hedge. I prefer to think in lay terms of cheating the odds. With the above in mind, the balance of this article attempts to explain how I look at constructing custom partial hedges.

Three Approaches to Hedging

First off, I have little interest in a hedge that caps my upside potential. For this reason, I generally steer clear of collars, unless I am going on a vacation and have no intention of watching the markets.

I find the following three types of hedging strategies have the greatest appeal:

1) Disaster Protection Hedge – A hedge that only pays off after a specified drawdown threshold, say 10% or 20%, similar to an insurance contract with a large deductible

2) Gap Protection Hedge – Has all the features of a disaster protection hedge, but also includes a cap, with the result that the hedge pays off only in a specified range, such as from a 10% - 20% drawdown

3) Proportional Protection Hedge – Instead of using thresholds and caps, proportional protection provides insurance against losses for a fixed percentage of each dollar lost

The common theme in each of the above three hedging strategy approaches is that an investor chooses partial protection rather than full protection, based on an assessment of the extent to which he or she finds losses to be an acceptable risk and at what losses must be hedged in order to preserve trading capital.

In the description of the three types of hedges, I have adopted some terminology normally associated with the insurance industry in order help clarify some important concepts. Specifically, I use the term deductible to describe the portion of a portfolio that is unhedged and thus 100% at risk. As Figure 1 below shows, in the case of a Disaster Protection Hedge, the deductible amount is equal to the first 20% of the losses that are unhedged, before the insurance threshold is triggered. In options parlance, the example in Figure 1 would be equivalent to holding a long position in SPY at 130 and having the position hedged with long SPY 104 puts, as 104 = 130 * 80%.

Figure 1:  Disaster Protection Hedges 80% of Portfolio with a 20% Deductible Before Insurance Kicks In (source: VIX and More)

While every investor should think long and hard about being hedged against a disastrous fall in stocks, such as the experience in 2008, in reality a 100-year flood does not happen very often and can be an expensive hedge to maintain on a daily basis. For this reason, I like the idea of what I call a Gap Protection Hedge. As shown in Figure 2 below, an investor might think that it is unlikely stocks will decline 20% or more, so he or she might prefer to remain unprotected for a 10% drop (i.e., a 10% deductible), yet be hedged dollar for dollar for any loss from 10% up to 20%. The maximum benefit of this hedge is capped at 20%, so once losses begin to exceed 20%, the investor is fully exposed to any incremental losses. In the options world, this type of protection would be similar to holding a long position in SPY at 130, with a hedge consisting of long SPY 117 puts and an equal amount of short SPY 104 puts.

Figure 2:  Gap Protection Hedges Only for a Specified Range, Here from 10% to 20% (10% Deductible, 20% Cap) (source: VIX and More)

While I find it helpful to think about hedged in terms of deductible thresholds and maximum benefits caps, proportional protection has the benefit of simplicity. In insurance terms, this is similar in some respects to a co-pay. As illustrated in Figure 3 below, there is no deductible or cap with proportional protection and the insurance coverage begins with the first dollar lost. This example shows how 50% proportional protection looks in graphical form. Here a 20% drop in the stock market only translates into a 10% loss due to the partial offset of the hedge. In the example below, the options equivalent for this strategy would be a position of 1000 shares of SPY that are hedged by 5 at-the-money puts. Of course, as the contract multiplier for SPY options is 100 shares, one can fully hedge 1000 shares with 10 puts, meaning that 5 puts would represent a 50% hedge.

Figure 3:  Proportional Protection Begins Immediately, But Only Covers a Percentage of Losses (Think 50% Co-Pay) (source: VIX and More)

Combining Multiple Hedging Approaches

While some investors might be happy sticking to one of the three type of partial hedging strategies mentioned above, the real fun begins when you consider these hedges as building blocks which allow an investor to design custom hedges.

For example, let us assume one is comfortable with accepting the first 10% drawdown as a cost of doing business and is willing to remain unhedged for the first 10% of portfolio losses. At some point, an investor will likely want a hedge to begin to offset some portion of incremental losses, yet might still think protection is too expensive to warrant being fully covered at a pullback of 10% or 20%. This investor might also think that stocks are unlikely to fall more than 30%, yet may not want his or her portfolio to suffer losses in excess of 20%.

One way to structure a hedge that meets all these requirements would be to buy gap protection for stock market losses from 10% to 20%, have proportional protection of 50% to cover losses from 20% to 30% and rely on disaster insurance in the event losses exceed 30%. Here the total maximum loss is 20% (the first 10% and 50% of the next 20%) and the hedge is structured in such a way that the investor pays nothing for the most expensive insurance (the first 10%), gets a discount on the next most expensive insurance (the proportional insurance for the next 20%) and only pays full price for the most unlikely events, where the markets fall more than 30%.

Conclusion

There is no denying that hedges are very expensive, particularly for those who put more faith in their trading skills than their hedging skills. Like any high wire-act, however, successful traders need a safety net to allow them to perform complex and dangerous maneuvers.

Traders who are able to define their risk tolerance in terms of worst case scenarios and potential maximum drawdowns have many ways in which to structure hedges to limit their risk. This article highlights three different approaches to structuring partial hedges for the purpose of maximizing portfolio protection while minimizing the cost of these hedges as well as the magnitude of certain types of risk. By combining these different partial hedging strategies, traders can customize their risk exposure to match individual needs and ensure that appropriate hedges can be constructed in a manner that is as cost efficient as possible.

Related posts:

• Why Not Point Hedges?
• Dynamic VIX ETPs as Long-Term Hedges
• Comparing SPLV and VQT
• Three New Risk Control ETFs from Direxion
• The Case for VQT
• The Year in Safe Havens
• The VIX as a Hedging Tool
• The VIX-VXX Minotaur Trade (originally published in Expiring Monthly)
• The Education of a Trader (originally published in Expiring Monthy)
• Recent Research Projects and Expiring Monthly

Disclosure(s): I am one of the founders and owners of Expiring Monthly

This time around I thought it might be of more value to present the same data, which now includes 17 pullbacks over a the course of a 38-month period, in the form of a scatter plot, with the magnitude of the peak-to-trough drawdown on the y-axis (inverted) and the number of trading days from the peak to the trough on the x-axis.

In the graphic below, I have highlighted the current 6.6% pullback from the April 2^nd high of SPX 1422 with a solid red diamond. This pullback now ranks as the 6^th deepest in terms of peak-to-trough magnitude and 3^rd longest in terms of peak-to-trough trading days. Interestingly, the 6.6% pullback over the course of 30 days is well below the (dotted black) linear trend line for the full data set; the trend line prediction for 30 days is in fact a 9.3% pullback, which I have plotted with a hollow red diamond.

For reference, I have also annotated the top two pullbacks during the past 38 months:

1. 21.6% over 109 days from May to October 2011
   
2. 17.1% over 48 days from April to July 2010

While both of the above pullbacks had multiple causes, the theme of Greek contagion fears was prominently featured in both pullbacks.

Whether the current pullback stops at SPX 1328 remains to be seen, but clearly it is a long way before anyone will be comfortable saying that the European sovereign debt crisis is contained.

Related posts:

• Putting the Current 2.6% SPX Pullback in Recent Historical Context
• Why Not Point Hedges?
• Comparing SPLV and VQT
• Three New Risk Control ETFs from Direxion
• The Case for VQT
• The Year in Safe Havens
• The VIX as a Hedging Tool
• Handicapping the Chances of Greece Dropping the Euro

[source(s): Yahoo]

Disclosure(s): none